Rethink HIV: Treatment and Initiatives to Reduce the Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic Perspective, Stover

Perspective Paper

Over and Garnett have applied an appropriate epidemiological model to estimate the impact of ART in a number of countries in SSA, have based their parameter values on the latest research findings and they have developed an innovative approach to projecting cost per patient into the future. Their sensitivity analysis captures the main uncertainties regarding who would benefit from the additional funding. However, there are at least two aspects of the analysis that might be done differently and could affect the findings: (1) examining whether treatment costs per patient will inevitably rise in the future and (2) whether the approach to simulating national epidemics is the best way to determine the impact of an additional $ 10 billion over five years. This paper will focus on these two issues.

A Perspective Paper has been written by John Stover, President at the Futures Institute. Each Perspective Paper reviews the assumptions and analyses made within the Assessment Paper. In this way, a range of informed perspectives are provided on the topic.