UN OWG Proposed Target 1.3
RATING: POOR. The introduction of a social protection floor, while laudable, is difficult to achieve well (properly targeted at low cost). Additionally, the resources required to implement full social protection are large and it risks creating very large (even 100%) effective marginal tax rates for the poor with disincentives to increase income. Moreover, the emerging evidence from studies that account for the full, general equilibrium effects of social protection and cash transfer programs is that unintended consequences can harm non-target groups either because local prices are raised (Lehmann, 2013) or because of the distortion in employment choices with expanded social protection leading to more informal employment (Camacho et al, 2013).
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In our recent report, not just the target above, but all 169 targets have been assessed by 60 teams of the world’s top economists. The targets have been categorized into five ratings based on evidence of economic, social, and environmental costs and benefits. While we applaud that the UN Open Working Group's final outcome document contains 43 fewer targets than the previous document, we are concerned that many targets have simply been combined, therefore reducing the number of both phenomenal and poor targets assessed according to our cost-benefit analysis. Our new assessment includes suggestions for how these can be improved as reported in this article by the Financial Times.
