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Population Growth

Current ‘high fertility’ countries account currently for about 38% of the 78 million persons that are added annually to the world population, despite composing only 18% of the current population. After 2060, world population is projected to grow exclusively as a result of growth in current high fertility countries. 

Summaries and download links to all our research papers on Population Growth below.

Publications

Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Public Transport, ILFS

This study is an attempt to test alternative options to examine development of comprehensive green urban mass transport network to reduce emphasis on low-capacity private modes, such as cars and motorcycles, and significantly bring down their share in passenger traffic to 20 percent by 2052. The two interventions analysed are Metro with Feeder Network and Dedicated Bus corridor with Electric Public Transport.

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Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Poverty, Sulaiman

This paper analyses the evidence on the necessity of subsidies for increasing uptake of crop insurance, and its potential impacts on farmers’ risk-taking ability and health benefit and second a graduation model that provides a potential avenue of expanding social protection for ultra-poor.

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Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Agriculture, Mittal

For the state of Andhra Pradesh the identified three interventions for analysis are: 1) Improving the availability of certified seeds; 2) Improving mechanization through custom hiring services, and; 3) Improving the extension services in the state through the use of modern ICT tools.

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Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Social Housing, Kundu

This study tries to bring in empirical evidence in the context of alternative perspectives, based on an evaluation of three centrally sponsored verticals viz. Beneficiary-led Construction or enhancement (BLC) (individual led), Affordable Housing in Partnership (AHP) (private developers led) and In-situ Slum Redevelopment (ISSR) (public private partnership and community engagement) launched under Housing for All by 2022 - Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana Urban (PMAY U). The idea is also to propose the re-allocation of funds available under PMAY U across verticals so as to maximize the impact on social welfare.

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Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Farmer Distress, Banik

Agriculture and allied sectors in India account for 14% of GDP and were a source of livelihood for 58% of the population for the fiscal year 2016-17 (Central Statistics Office, Government of India, 2016). This paper seeks to research on the reasons for farmer distress in the state of Andhra Pradesh, and research on the interventions for alleviating the distress.

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Andhra Pradesh Priorities: Water & Sanitation, Larsen

Diarrheal disease caused nearly 1.7 million deaths globally in 2016. Nearly 0.8 million of these deaths occurred in India of which 90% were due to unsafe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene according to estimates by the Global Burden of Disease 2016 (GBD 2016).

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Rajasthan Priorities: Poverty, Sulaiman

This paper analyses the evidence on the necessity of subsidies for increasing uptake of crop insurance, and its potential impacts on farmers’ risk-taking ability and health benefit and second a graduation model that provides a potential avenue of expanding social protection for ultra-poor.

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Rajasthan Priorities: Energy Last Mile, ILFS

The vast majority of the population without access to electricity in India resides in rural areas. The electrification rate in urban areas is 97%, while rural electrification rate was 74% as of 2016 (IEA, 2017). Several dedicated programmes funded by the Government of India have been initiated in the past to address the challenge of rural electrification.

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Rajasthan Priorities: Agriculture, Mittal

The Union Government is aiming to double farmer incomes by 2022, in this context it is necessary to review existing agricultural policies, and in particular to evaluate strategies related to productivity enhancement which may provide pathways to improving incomes.

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Rajasthan Priorities: Social Housing, Kundu

Providing ownership housing to all houseless households and those living in unacceptable dwelling units on account of the temporary or obsolete structure, congestion, privacy factors, slum and squatter settlements, etc. has been in the policy domain for past few decades.

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Rajasthan Priorities: Farmer Distress, Banik

Agriculture and allied sector in India accounts for 14% of GDP and is a source of livelihood for 58% of the population with reference to fiscal year 2016-17 (Central Statistics Office, Government of India, 2016). This paper seeks to research on the reasons for farmer distress in the state of Rajasthan, and research on the interventions for alleviating the distress.

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Assessment Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Population and Demography Assessment, Kohler Behrman

Prioritizing the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda on Population and Demography requires recognition that national demographic trajectories are currently more diverse than in the middle and late 20th century. Wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population aging, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen.

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Population and Demography Perspective, Canning

The challenge paper covers a wide range of issues and there is a lack of detail in some of the arguments. We have to think of priorities across as well as within issues, and this paper puts forward five thematic priorities.

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Population and Demography Perspective, Galor Casey

In all facets of life, people must make decisions about how to allocate scarce resources. Potential parents must decide how many children to have and how much to invest in the future of each child. This decision is known as the ‘quantity-quality’ tradeoff.

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment of Final OWG Targets

This report assesses the targets in the OWG’s Final Outcome Document from 19 July 2014. This builds upon the information presented in similar documents which the Copenhagen Consensus Center released...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 12th Session OWG Goals

The Copenhagen Consensus has updated our benefit-cost assessment of UN Post-2015 Millennium Development Goals for the 12th session of the Open Working Group. The Copenhagen Consensus will present...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 11th Session OWG Goals

Some of the world’s top economists have assessed the targets from the 11th session Open Working Group document into one of five categories, based on economic evidence: Phenomenal, Good, Fair, Poor and Uncertain.

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Assessment Paper

Denmark Consensus: Integration

By Peder J. Pedersen. In 2008 70,000 people immigrated to Denmark. Nearly 30,000 people emigrated. The relative large flows of immigration and emigration is a relatively new phenomenon. It is important to note that this flow is composed of people with vast differences in background and motives.

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Population Growth Assessment, Kohler

In research for the third Copenhagen Consensus, Hans-Peter Kohler of the University of Pennsylvania focuses on assisting sub-Saharan African nations that make the dominant contribution to world...

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Population Growth Perspective, Lam

David Lam wrote a Perspective Paper in response Hans-Peter Kohler's Assessment on Population Growth for the third Copenhagen Consensus.

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Population Growth Perspective, Galor

Oded Galor researched and produced one of the two Perspecitve Papers on Population Growth for the third Copenhagen Consensus.

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Assessment Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Population and Migration Assessment, Martin

For most of human history, migration has been constrained by physical barriers and transport difficulties rather than government action. More recently, sharply different rates of population and economic growth across the world have combined to make many workers from poorer countries eager to move to more prosperous ones.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Population and Migration Perspective, Böhning

Roger Böhning wrote a Perspective Paper in response to Philip L. Martin's Assessment on Population and Migration.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Population and Migration Perspective, Rosenzweig

Mark Rosenzweig wrote a Perspective Paper in response to the Population and Migration research by Philip L. Martin.

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