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Population Growth

Current ‘high fertility’ countries account currently for about 38% of the 78 million persons that are added annually to the world population, despite composing only 18% of the current population. After 2060, world population is projected to grow exclusively as a result of growth in current high fertility countries. 

Summaries and download links to all our research papers on Population Growth below.

Publications

Assessment Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Population and Demography Assessment, Kohler Behrman

Prioritizing the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda on Population and Demography requires recognition that national demographic trajectories are currently more diverse than in the middle and late 20th century. Wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population aging, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen.

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Population and Demography Perspective, Canning

The challenge paper covers a wide range of issues and there is a lack of detail in some of the arguments. We have to think of priorities across as well as within issues, and this paper puts forward five thematic priorities.

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Population and Demography Perspective, Galor Casey

In all facets of life, people must make decisions about how to allocate scarce resources. Potential parents must decide how many children to have and how much to invest in the future of each child. This decision is known as the ‘quantity-quality’ tradeoff.

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment of Final OWG Targets

This report assesses the targets in the OWG’s Final Outcome Document from 19 July 2014. This builds upon the information presented in similar documents which the Copenhagen Consensus Center released...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 12th Session OWG Goals

The Copenhagen Consensus has updated our benefit-cost assessment of UN Post-2015 Millennium Development Goals for the 12th session of the Open Working Group. The Copenhagen Consensus will present...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 11th Session OWG Goals

Some of the world’s top economists have assessed the targets from the 11th session Open Working Group document into one of five categories, based on economic evidence: Phenomenal, Good, Fair, Poor and Uncertain.

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Assessment Paper

Denmark Consensus: Integration

By Peder J. Pedersen. In 2008 70,000 people immigrated to Denmark. Nearly 30,000 people emigrated. The relative large flows of immigration and emigration is a relatively new phenomenon. It is important to note that this flow is composed of people with vast differences in background and motives.

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Population Growth Assessment, Kohler

In research for the third Copenhagen Consensus, Hans-Peter Kohler of the University of Pennsylvania focuses on assisting sub-Saharan African nations that make the dominant contribution to world...

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Population Growth Perspective, Lam

David Lam wrote a Perspective Paper in response Hans-Peter Kohler's Assessment on Population Growth for the third Copenhagen Consensus.

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Population Growth Perspective, Galor

Oded Galor researched and produced one of the two Perspecitve Papers on Population Growth for the third Copenhagen Consensus.

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Assessment Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Population and Migration Assessment, Martin

For most of human history, migration has been constrained by physical barriers and transport difficulties rather than government action. More recently, sharply different rates of population and economic growth across the world have combined to make many workers from poorer countries eager to move to more prosperous ones.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Population and Migration Perspective, Böhning

Roger Böhning wrote a Perspective Paper in response to Philip L. Martin's Assessment on Population and Migration.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Population and Migration Perspective, Rosenzweig

Mark Rosenzweig wrote a Perspective Paper in response to the Population and Migration research by Philip L. Martin.

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