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Climate Change & Energy

Climate change is real and man-made. It will come as a big surprise that climate change from 1900 to 2025 has mostly been a net benefit, rising to increase welfare about 1.5% GDP per year. In the longer run the costs will exeed the benefits, summaries and download links to all our research papers on solutions to Climate Change below.

Publications

Viewpoint Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Climate Change Viewpoint, Scott

Scott (ODI) raises the issue of how climate change is to be incorporated into the international development agenda, given the acknowledged link between climate change, development and poverty...

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Viewpoint Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Climate Change Viewpoint, ForumCC

Muna and Issa (Forum CC) think that the challenge paper has covered the technical and economic analysis well, building up strong, evidence-based arguments. However, they also believe that there is a...

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Climate Change Perspective, Mendelsohn

Summary The optimal solution to the greenhouse gas problem minimizes the sum of the climate damage and the cost of mitigation over the long run, but the current UN initiative is not even close to...

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Climate Change Perspective, Fischer

Summary While concurring with some of the broad conclusions of the challenge paper, there is no scientific consensus that a limit of 450 ppm of CO 2 does not pass a cost-benefit test; in fact, broad...

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Post-2015 Consensus: Climate Change Assessment, Galiana

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Assessment Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Energy Assessment, Galiana Sopinka

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Energy Perspective, Moss Gleave

Summary The invigorated focus on energy on the development agenda is a positive step reflecting what governments, business leaders, and citizens across the developing world agree: increasing access...

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Perspective Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Energy Perspective, Morris

Summary This perspective paper reviews the targets and their priorities and proposes a seventh, policy-based target. Morris believes that the challenge paper convincingly explains how access to...

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Viewpoint Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Energy Viewpoint, Mashele

Mashele (DBSA) looks at the various targets proposed against the current trends in energy capacity and investment. The seven emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Mexico...

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Viewpoint Paper

Post-2015 Consensus: Energy Viewpoint, Innovation Africa

While Ishofsky (Innovation: Africa) commends the authors of the assessment paper for their exploration of social, environmental and financial issues relating to universal energy access, she also...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment of Final OWG Targets

This report assesses the targets in the OWG’s Final Outcome Document from 19 July 2014. This builds upon the information presented in similar documents which the Copenhagen Consensus Center released...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 12th Session OWG Goals

The Copenhagen Consensus has updated our benefit-cost assessment of UN Post-2015 Millennium Development Goals for the 12th session of the Open Working Group. The Copenhagen Consensus will present...

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Policy Advice

Preliminary Benefit-Cost Assessment for 11th Session OWG Goals

Some of the world’s top economists have assessed the targets from the 11th session Open Working Group document into one of five categories, based on economic evidence: Phenomenal, Good, Fair, Poor and Uncertain.

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Assessment Paper

A Scorecard for Humanity: Climate Change

Climate change is real and man-made. It will come as a big surprise that climate change from 1900 to 2025 has mostly been a net benefit, rising to increase welfare about 1.5% of GDP per year. Why? Because global warming has mixed effects and for moderate warming, the benefits prevail.

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Technology-led Mitigation

The Assessment Paper on Technology-led Mitigation by Isabel Galiana and Christopher Green is an update of one of the key research papers from the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate in 2009 ( Fix The...

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Emission Abatement

Richard S. J. Tol's paper on Emission Abatement was of one of the key research papers from the Copenhagen Consensus on Climate in 2009 ( Fix The Climate ), this updated Assessment Paper was...

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Engineering

J. Eric Bickel and Lee Lane prepared new research Climate Engineering for the third Copenhagen Consensus in 2012, by updating of one of the key research papers from the Copenhagen Consensus on...

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Assessment Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Change Adaptation

An Assessment Papers on Climate Change Adaptation has been written by Francesco Bosello, Carlo Carraro and Enrica de Cian and released by the Copenhagen Consensus Center. It is update of one of the...

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Change Perspective 1

Assessment Papers on Climate Change have been written by Francesco Bosello, Carlo Carraro and Enrica de Cian (Adaptation), J. Eric Bickel and Lee Lane (Climate Engineering), Richard S. J. Tol (...

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Perspective Paper

Third Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Change Perspective 2

Challenge Papers on Climate Change have been written by Francesco Bosello, Carlo Carraro and Enrica de Cian (Adaptation), J. Eric Bickel and Lee Lane (Climate Engineering), Richard S. J. Tol (...

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Policy Advice

Policy report: The Costs And Benefits Of EU Climate Policy For 2020

By Richard S.J. Tol. The European Union aims to limit its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions to 80% of its 1990 emissions. The European Commission has published an impact assessment, but not a cost-benefit analysis – an earlier cost-benefit analysis covered the eventual target but not the intermediate ones, let alone the details of policy implementation. This paper fills the gap, estimating the costs and the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% in a decade.

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Policy Advice

Policy report: Defining, Measuring and Predicting Green Jobs

By Gürcan Gülen. The purpose of this paper is to assess the “state of science” in defining, measuring and predicting green jobs. Estimating economic impact, including creation of jobs, of any major investment scheme is difficult as multiplier effects can change over time and there are often unintended consequences.

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Policy Advice

Policy report: Energy Security - An Impact Assessment of the EU Climate and Energy Package

By Christoph Böhringer & Andreas Keller. This paper looks at the EU's Climate and Energy Package and its targets, collectively known as 20-20-20.

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Policy Advice

Fix The Climate: Advice for Policymakers

In 2009, the Copenhagen Consensus Center commissioned new research on the economics and feasibility of different responses to global warming, and then used Nobel Laureate economists to evaluate that...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Adapting to Climate Change’s Effects

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. No matter what we...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Adapting to Climate Change’s Effects, Perspective 1

Dr Samuel Fankhauser makes the case for adaptation as a core part of the global policy response to climate change. He argues that adaptation is now unavoidable, because there are no realistic...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Adapting to Climate Change’s Effects, Perspective 2

Dr Frank Jotzo notes that economic analysis of adaptation is subject to similar complications and limitations that beset quantitative economic analysis of climate change mitigation. To make such...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Sharing Green Technology

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. Technology...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Sharing Green Technology, Perspective

Professor David Popp notes that, while developed countries are beginning to constrain growth in carbon emissions, emissions from developing countries are growing. Given that most historical emissions...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Black Carbon Emissions

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. As much as 40% of...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Black Carbon Emissions, Perspective

Dr. Milind Kandlikar, Conor C. O. Reynolds and Andrew P. Grieshop find that black carbon reductions – especially those related to contained combustion – provide a win-win opportunity with...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Protecting and Planting Forests

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. Ecosystems store...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Protecting and Planting Forests, Perspective

Dr Sabine Fuss is in broad agreement with Prof. Brent Sohngen’s analysis of costs and benefits associated with the climate change mitigation options offered by forest carbon sequestration. She...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Carbon Emissions

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. Climate economist...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Carbon Emissions, Perspective 1

Dr. Ir. Onno Kuik discusses the estimated benefit-cost ratios of carbon mitigation as a solution to climate change. Kuik is in agreement with most of what is written by Richard Tol on the state of...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Carbon Emissions, Perspective 2

Professor Roberto Roson notes that Tol’s Assessment Paper is largely based on the FUND model and the results of a set of simulation exercises where a number of policy options are explored and...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Climate Engineering

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. Climate...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Climate Engineering, Perspective 1

Dr. Anne Smith critiques the Analysis Paper by Dr. Bickel and Lane, overlaying their work with a consideration of potential unintended consequences from geoengineering, and extending it by...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Climate Engineering, Perspective 2

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr critiques the cost-benefit analysis of climate engineering of Dr. Bickel and Lane. He also summarizes an analysis of the potential role for air capture technologies to play in the...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Researching Green Energy

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. This research...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Researching Green Energy, Perspective 1

Professor Gregory Nemet finds that the Assessment Paper clearly establishes the inexorable growth in demand for energy services over the current century, the magnitude of the technological revolution...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Researching Green Energy, Perspective 2

Dr Valentina Bosetti finds that R&D will be an essential part of any climate policy, independently of how stringent the optimal climate policy is believed to be; R&D policy alone will not do...

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Assessment Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Methane Emissions

The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper has been published in Smart Solutions to Climate Change by Cambridge University Press. Methane is a...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Methane Emissions, Perspective 1

Dr David Anthoff concludes that a methane emission mitigation policy that follows the spending schedule suggested by the Copenhagen Consensus project does not pass a benefit-cost test. More...

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Perspective Paper

Fix The Climate: Cutting Methane Emissions, Perspective 2

Dr David Johansson and Dr Fredrik Hedenus note that many sources of methane are non-point emission sources. This makes it harder to regulate and control methane emissions than most carbon dioxide...

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Assessment Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Global Warming

An Assessment Paper on Global Warming was prepared for the second Copenhagen Consensus by Gary W. Yohe, Richard S.J. Tol, Richard G. Richels, and Geoffrey J. Blanford. The working paper used by the...

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Perspective Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Global Warming Perspective 1

An Assessment Paper on Global Warming was prepared for the second Copenhagen Consensus by Gary W. Yohe, Richard S.J. Tol, Richard G. Richels, and Geoffrey J. Blanford. Christopher Green and Anil...

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Perspective Paper

Second Copenhagen Consensus: Global Warming Perspective 2

An Assessment Paper on Global Warming was prepared for the second Copenhagen Consensus by Gary W. Yohe, Richard S.J. Tol, Richard G. Richels, and Geoffrey J. Blanford. Christopher Green and Anil...

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Assessment Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Change

An Assessment Paper on Climate Change was prepared for the 2004 Copenhagen Consensus by William Cline. The working paper used by the Expert Panel is available for download here, the finalized paper...

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Change Perspective 1

An Assessment Paper on Climate Change was prepared for the 2004 Copenhagen Consensus by William Cline. Robert Mendelsohn and Alan Manne wrote Perspective Papers in response.

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Perspective Paper

Copenhagen Consensus: Climate Change Perspective 2

An Assessment Paper on Climate Change was prepared for the 2004 Copenhagen Consensus by William Cline. Robert Mendelsohn and Alan Manne wrote Perspective Papers in response.

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Projects

A Scorecard for Humanity

A Scorecard for Humanity fits into the ongoing conversation between optimists and pessimists for the last half century. The central question has been: what is the state of the world? The results of our study have been published by Cambridge University Press under the book title How Much Have Global Problems Cost the World? A Scorecard from 1900 to 2050

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Copenhagen Consensus

The Copenhagen Consensus was our first project. The basic idea was to improve prioritization of the numerous problems the world faces, by gathering some of the world's greatest economists to a meeting where some of the biggest challenges in the world would be assessed.

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Copenhagen Consensus III

In 2004 and 2008, the Copenhagen Consensus Center held two major projects that helped to shape overseas development spending and philanthropic decisions for years to come. The third Copenhagen Consensus was the latest iteration of our ongoing work to prioritize the best solutions.

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Post-2015 Consensus

In 2015, the UN's Millennium Development Goals are expiring and the international community will set new goals. The Post-2015 Consensus brings together the world’s top economists, NGOs, international agencies and businesses to identify the goals with the greatest benefit-to-cost ratio for the next development agenda.

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Copenhagen Consensus on Climate

Global warming is real; it is caused by man-made CO2 emissions, and we need to do something about it. But we don't need action that makes us feel good. We need action that actually does good.

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Denmark Consensus 2009

What are Denmark's biggest challenges? What areas concern Danes the most, and where do they want Danish politicians to focus first? What are the best solutions to their concerns, and where can we do the most good?

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Copenhagen Consensus II

The second Copenhagen Consensus took place 25-30 May in Copenhagen. Once again, our Expert Panel tackled the question, Imagine you had $75 billion to donate to worthwhile causes. What would you do, and where should we start? The Panel released a prioritized list recommending how best to tackle ten of the world's most pressing issues.

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